PTA&Nbsp; The Adjustment Period Has Come Quietly.

From the PTA (8958,58.00,0.65%) fundamentals, the weak demand of the upstream strong cost game is running low after the 9000 wave of PTA rising from cost. PTA market The adjustment period has come quietly.

Before and after the Spring Festival, with the help of external macro environment and cost push, PTA futures rose from 7800 points to 9200 points. However, the rise of crude oil and the reduction of the domestic reserve requirement ratio can not stimulate the further rise of the PTA price, indicating that the PTA market has entered a period of adjustment.

Commodities are running high and weak.

After the Spring Festival, the data of the US employment market and real estate market continue to improve. The eurozone finance ministers have reached an agreement on the Greek aid scheme, which will provide 130 billion euros of funds and the domestic reserve rate also down as scheduled. However, the improvement of the macro environment has not been effectively transmitted to the consumption of terminal products. Apart from crude oil, domestic commodities are mostly sluggish and slow in consumption. Copper, rebar (4230, -9.00, -0.21%) and rubber (29305275.00,0.95%) stocks all reach peak value. commodity There is a lot of pressure on stock.

Different from the European debt problem, the environment is gradually improving. The main factor restricting the strength of commodities is the real demand of commodities.

Geopolitical factors support strong oil

Although OPEC and EIA both cut down global oil consumption in 2012 and Europe, the price of crude oil is still strong. There are two reasons for the strong oil price: first, the growth point of global crude oil consumption has shifted to developing countries, and the demand for emerging markets is strong. In January 2012, China imported 23 million 410 thousand tons of crude oil, the highest level in history, rising by 6.8%, an increase of 7.4% over the same period last year. Two, geopolitical events continue to provide an atmosphere for rising oil prices. Syria's domestic upheaval is escalating, and Iran is constantly rubbing with the West. Both countries are at the core of the Middle East.

Geopolitical issues are the biggest variables leading to the trend of crude oil in the coming year. In the short term, oil prices will remain strong.

PX manufacturers shift costs

22, Sinopec issued PTA2 month settlement price, set at 9450 yuan / ton, then Asian mainstream PX suppliers have launched its advocacy price in March, South Korea S-Oil, Japan Nippon stone set at 1690 U.S. dollars / ton, while Japan's light spot was set at 1740 US dollars / ton, up 100 US dollars / ton and 150 US dollars / ton respectively compared with last month. If the above PX price is calculated, the PTA production cost will be increased to more than 9600/ tons. In February, the spot price of PTA was generally around 9000 yuan / ton. Therefore, if the PTA industry does not take immediate measures, it will soon fall into the loss of the whole industry in November last year. It is understood that Yisheng group has cut some of its load by 30%, involving 3 million 500 thousand tons of capacity. I believe that the PTA manufacturers in the near future will further reduce their losses to cope with the high price of PX. On the one hand, they can reduce the demand for PX, prevent PX manufacturers from asking for a big price, force them to lower the settlement price in March, and on the other hand, help to reduce PTA inventory and adjust the balance between supply and demand.

Downstream market weakness

In the normal year, the lower reaches begin gradually after a week after the Spring Festival. Purchase Raw materials to cope with the spring high season, but this year's situation is different. Three weeks after the holiday, the replenishment has not yet appeared. The stock of PTA downstream filament and staple fiber is constantly accumulating. The stock of short fiber, filament POY and FDY has risen to more than half a month. DTY stock exceeds January, and inventory is at a high level. The downstream weaving has been restored to 65% normal level, but the weaving factory generally reflects that the order is too few, and the weaving factory is reluctant to purchase too much raw material. Polyester profit is also very low, the gross profit of mainstream staple fiber and filament is around 500 yuan / ton, and some low price varieties are losing money. Without downstream support, it will be difficult to sustain PTA price rise solely on the basis of PX cost.

At present, the difficulty of goods going to stock is a common phenomenon. It is not a problem of one or two varieties. From this point of view, PTA's market outlook is not optimistic.

From the perspective of PTA fundamentals, the weak demand of the upstream strong cost game, the cost of this wave of PTA rise to 9000 after the operation is weak, the further expansion of the market needs downstream consumption support. At present, polyester consumption is the most important index, but from the recent production and sales data, there is no sign of good walking. The adjustment period of PTA market has come quietly.