Monthly Report On China'S Cotton Price Index (CC Index) (October)

Project commitment: Beijing cotton outlook Information Consulting Co., Ltd.

Monitoring target: 100 cotton textile enterprises of 18 main cotton production and consumption provinces.

In October, Sino US economic and trade sides made frequent calls to release good signals and boost confidence in the market. A large number of new cotton are listed, and the acquisition and processing of cotton enterprises are in full swing. Domestic cotton prices rose steadily, and enterprises actively sold cotton. With the advent of the "golden nine silver ten" textile traditional peak season, cotton demand has improved and volume has increased significantly. During the same period, international cotton increased steadily, and the spot price of cotton at the end of the month was higher than domestic prices.

I. Changes in spot prices at home and abroad

1, domestic spot prices rose at the end of the month.

In October, the smooth progress of Sino US negotiations slowed down trade frictions, which was conducive to stable economic expectations and marked confidence in market confidence. With the advent of new cotton stocks, domestic stocks are still large and market resources are abundant. Textile enterprises demand further improved, cotton spot prices rose steadily. At the end of the month, China's cotton price index (CCIndex3128B) was 12971 yuan / ton, up 363 yuan from the end of last month, and the monthly average price was 12962 yuan / ton, down 239 yuan, down 3237 yuan compared with the same period last year.

2, new and old replacement of long staple cotton and price decline

10 in the middle of next month, new cotton came on the market. The difference between the purchase price of long staple cotton and the fine cotton price was narrowed compared with that of last year. Because of the low cost of long staple cotton this year, the actual transaction price fell from last month. At the end of the month, the 137 level transaction price was 20800 yuan / ton, lower than the 1800 yuan / ton at the end of last month, which was higher than that of China's cotton price index (CCIndex3128B) 7972 yuan / ton in the same period. This difference narrowed by 1603 yuan / ton compared with the end of last month.

3, the international cotton price shocks rise, the price of cotton is higher than domestic prices.

The Sino US trade friction slowed down in October. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times at the end of the month. The spot price of the international cotton futures rose sharply, and the spot price of cotton in the late second half exceeded the domestic cotton price. The price index of China's cotton imports FCIndexM 75.27 cents per month, up 4.02 cents / pound. The end of the month is 77 cents / pound, up from 4.69 cents / pound at the end of last month, and 13418 yuan / ton below 1% tariff, which is higher than the 447 yuan / ton of domestic stock in the same period, which is 494 yuan / ton higher than the previous month's end.

4, the textile market is slightly better, and prices of various products have stabilized.

In October textile products prices stabilized and orders and transactions improved. Specifically, the price of cotton yarn KC32S and combed JC40S at the end of the month was 21120 yuan / ton and 24400 yuan / ton, respectively, up 10 yuan / ton at the end of last month, 6950 yuan / ton of polyester staple fiber, 250 yuan / ton at the end of last month, and 10700 yuan / ton of viscose staple fiber, unchanged from the end of last month.

Two, factors affecting domestic and foreign price changes

1, Sino US trade friction mitigation

In October, the representatives of China US trade and economic cooperation frequently contacted each other and actively promoted the progress of trade negotiations, bringing positive signals to the market. The Ministry of Commerce issued a notice recently that it will start the elimination procedure for China's 300 billion dollar tariff list from October 31st. If the application is approved, customs duties can be traced back from September 1, 2019. Sino US trade friction has slowed down, and confidence in the market has been markedly improved.

2, the futures market shocks rose

In September, the cotton futures market in Zhengzhou rose sharply at the end of the month, and the volume of warehouse receipts decreased from last month. The main contract CF001 settlement price at the end of the month 13130 yuan / ton, compared with the last 12085 yuan / ton rose 1045 yuan / ton, or 7.96%. 9910 registered warehouse receipts at the end of the month, 396 thousand and 400 tons, 9 thousand and 800 tons lower than the end of last month.

3, production is expected to decline, and the purchase price is rising at the end of the month.

Due to adverse weather conditions, the new cotton market is generally postponed for about a week this year, and the output is expected to decline slightly. In October, the purchase volume in Xinjiang was slightly lower than that in the same period last year, and the progress of purchase was obviously accelerated. At the end of the month, there will be a rush to catch up with enterprises within the territory, and the gradual increase in the purchase price will also affect the price of lint.

4, textile peak season, orders slightly improved.

October is the peak season of traditional textile, cotton yarn has obvious signs of warming, orders slightly improved. After several months' inventory, textile stocks in textile mills have declined and market confidence has been restored.