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Supply, Demand And Emotional Depression, The Market For Ethylene Glycol In November Is Difficult.

2019/11/1 11:07:00 4

Eleven The monthly supply of ethylene glycol will increase by 62 thousand and 800 tons, with the change of polyester production base. There is no obvious change in the expected demand. The increase in supply, coupled with a bit of pessimism in the latter part of the industry, is difficult to drive the market price of ethylene glycol.

Supply side:

Table 1 domestic ethylene glycol unit maintenance list

Unit: 10000 tons, day.

Enterprise name	capacity	Date of maintenance	Ten Monthly maintenance days	Ten Monthly loss
Anhui Huaihua Group Co., Ltd.	Ten	2018.4.28- undetermined	Thirty-one	Zero point nine three
Luoyang Yongjin Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	2018.12.9-10.31	Thirty-one	One point eight six
Anyang Yongjin Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	7.20-10.31	Thirty-one	One point eight six
Yongcheng Yongjin Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	10.22-11.10	Ten	Zero point six zero
Xinxiang Yongjin Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	10.23-10.31	Nine	Zero point five four
Xinjiang production and Construction Corps Tian Ying petrochemical Limited by Share Ltd	Fifteen	4.26-10.19	Nineteen	Zero point eight six
Shandong Hua Lu Heng Sheng chemical Limited by Share Ltd 1#	Five	10.18-11.1	Fourteen	Zero point two one
Lihua Yi Jin refining and Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	10.14-10.31	Eighteen	One point zero eight
China Salt Anhui red Quartet Limited by Share Ltd	Thirty	10.15-10.17	Two	Zero point one eight
China Petroleum Chemical Co Hubei Fertilizer Branch	Twenty	10.21-10.31	Ten	Zero point six zero
Qianxi Qian Xi Coal Chemical Investment Co., Ltd.	Thirty	10.24-10.25	One	Zero point zero nine
Tongliao golden Coal Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.	Thirty	10.23-10.27	Four	Zero point three six
yanshan petrochemical	Eight	7.1- undetermined	Thirty-one	Zero point seven four
Far East petrochemical	Forty-five	10.11-10.30	Twenty	Two point seven zero
Liaoyang petrochemical	Nineteen	Conversion EO ratio 1:19	Thirty-one	One point seven seven
Shanghai petrochemical 1#	Twenty-three	Conversion to EO	Thirty-one	Two point one four
Shanghai petrochemical 2#	Thirty-eight	10.13-10.21	Eleven	One point two six
China Shipping Shell 1#	Thirty-five	10.17-11.3	Fifteen	One point five eight
Total	Four hundred and eight			Nineteen point three six

Source: lung Chung

According to long Zhong information statistics, in October, domestic ethylene glycol overhaul enterprises were mainly coal enterprises, involving 4 million 80 thousand tons of production capacity, and the monthly losses were estimated at 193 thousand and 600 tons, which did not include oil production and EO production.

Table 2 domestic ethylene glycol unit overhaul and plan maintenance list

Unit: 10000 tons, day.

Enterprise name	capacity	Date of maintenance	Eleven Monthly maintenance days	Eleven Monthly loss
Anhui Huaihua Group Co., Ltd.	Ten	2018.4.28- undetermined	Thirty	Zero point nine zero
Luoyang Yongjin Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	2018.12.9- undetermined	Thirty	One point eight zero
Anyang Yongjin Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	7.20- undetermined	Thirty	One point eight zero
Yongcheng Yongjin Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	10.22-11.10	Ten	Zero point six zero
Shandong Hua Lu Heng Sheng chemical Limited by Share Ltd 2#	Fifty	Ten The end of the month (undetermined time)	Ten	One point five zero
Qianxi Qian Xi Coal Chemical Investment Co., Ltd.	Thirty	11.5-11.30	Twenty-five	Two point two five
yanshan petrochemical	Eight	7.1- undetermined	Thirty	Zero point seven two
Liaoyang petrochemical	Nineteen	Conversion EO ratio 1:19	Thirty	One point seven one
Shanghai petrochemical 1#	Twenty-three	Conversion to EO	Thirty	Two point zero seven
China Shipping Shell 1#	Thirty-five	10.17-11.3	Three	Zero point three two
Total	Two hundred and thirty-five			Thirteen point six eight

Source: lung Chung

According to long Zhong information statistics, in November, domestic ethylene glycol overhaul enterprises were mainly coal enterprises, involving 2 million 350 thousand tons of production capacity, and the monthly losses were estimated at 136 thousand and 800 tons, which did not include oil production and EO production.

Fig. 1 Comparison of domestic and Eastern main port stock and market prices in China

Source: lung Chung

As of October 31st, the port of East China's main port area has about 508 thousand tons of ethylene glycol port. Among them, 283 thousand tons in Zhangjiagang, 58 thousand tons in Ningbo, 60 thousand tons in Shanghai and Changshu, 67 thousand tons in Taicang, and 40 thousand tons in Jiangyin.

It is estimated that next week (October 31st -11 6), the port of East China is expected to arrive at 176 thousand tons, of which 110 thousand tons are planned for Zhangjiagang, 33 thousand tons for Taicang wharf, 21 thousand tons for Ningbo, 12 thousand tons for Jiangyin, and no vessel for Shanghai.

Demand side

Table 3 schedule of planned maintenance of polyester plant in China

Unit: 10000 tons

Enterprise name	capacity	repair time	Estimated restart time	Products involved
Fujian nylon	Forty-five	Ten Maintenance of 250 thousand tons on 13 February, 200 thousand tons in October 18th	Expected to overhaul for one month.	Filament and staple fiber
Jinsheng	One	Ten Near 18	Undetermined	Polyester filament
Quan di	Eight	Ten Near 18	Undetermined	Polyester filament
Yizheng	Twenty-five	Ten 21 June	Estimated overhaul for 20-30 days.	PET bottle flakes
Tipco	Fifty	Ten 24 June	Estimated overhaul for 10 days.	PET bottle flakes
Huarun	Thirty	Ten 24 June	Expected to overhaul for one month.	PET bottle flakes
Jinxing	Seven	Ten 25 June	Estimated overhaul for 1 months.	Polyester staple fiber
Cheng Gao	Sixty	Parking is expected to start in early November.	Undetermined	PET bottle flakes
Shen Jiu	Twenty	It is expected that the plant will be transformed alternately in December.	Undetermined	Polyester filament
Total	Two hundred and forty-six

Source: lung Chung

Long Zhong information statistics, in October, the polyester industry started an average of 88.89%, a 1.01% decline in the chain. The reason for the decline in the operating rate of the industry is that during the month, although there were 300 thousand new tons of new Feng Ming and 50 thousand new tonnes of flair, the new equipment was put into operation. However, the cash flow in the month was low and the downstream demand continued to be sluggish. Polyester filament, polyester staple fiber and polyester bottle tablets were all reduced by factories and overhauled, involving factories such as julun, Tai Bao and Yizheng. Entered in November, on-site maintenance and reboot devices coexist, and new installations are expected to be put into operation. Next month, Yizheng, Tai Bao, Jinxing and other maintenance devices are expected to restart. However, it is expected that the new devices of Hengyi Kai, Huabao chemical fiber and Dalian Yisheng will be put into operation. Overall demand has not changed much.

On the whole: Up to now, the market information shows that the domestic port stock is keeping low in the near future, but most of the glycol repair devices are returned to normal next month, and the supply is increasing obviously. In the late stage, the new capacity is about to go into operation. The operators in the field are pessimistic about the market outlook. The market price of ethylene glycol is difficult to rise. In November, it will be oscillating between 4500-4800 yuan / ton.