Foreign Trade Growth Slightly Narrowed Surplus Narrowed Slightly

During the whole year of 2016, the import growth rate showed a trend of upward trend in the background of economic stabilization and domestic demand improvement during the year. The import of major raw materials increased significantly, while the growth rate of exports was weakened by the weakness of global economic recovery, and the export volume of all major trading partners was low.

At present, the market has great divergence on the future direction of China's exports: on the one hand, the current economic fundamentals of major developed economies show signs of improvement, which will lead to a slowdown in China's export growth; on the other hand, Trump's tough attitude towards China's trade and the US President's attitude towards China.

The leading power has made the market worried about the great negative impact of Sino US trade war on exports.

Considering that the US imports from China account for 21.3% of the scale of imports, the large-scale trade war in the near future is not realistic.

Therefore, we believe that the tension of Sino US trade relations after Trump's coming to power is noteworthy. But in 2017, China's exports will still benefit from the overall improvement of global foreign trade, and export declines will narrow in 2017.

In the short term, the low base factor will lead to a rebound in the growth rate of foreign trade in January 2017. It is expected that export growth will rise to -3.0% in January and import growth will rise to 6.2%.

Import and export growth slowed down in December.

In December, China's total import and export volume declined by 2.2% compared with the US dollar, the growth rate slipped 3.3 percentage points from last month, and the trade surplus narrowed to 40 billion 818 million US dollars.

Among them,

Compared with the previous month, it dropped by 6.1%, down 4.5 percentage points.

The volume of imports increased by 3.1% over the same period last year, a slight decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, while the import seasonally adjusted in December increased by 6.9%, up 4.6 percentage points from the previous month, and has reached a new high of more than two years.

For the whole year of 2016, exports were -7.7% year-on-year, down 4.8 percentage points from 2015, and the trend of export growth was dominated by small two-way fluctuations in the negative range.

The overall situation was weak, while imports increased by 8.8 percentage points compared with -5.5% in 2015, and the upward trend of import growth was significant, mainly due to the significant improvement in domestic demand caused by the stabilization of domestic economy.

Export growth of major trading partners has declined overall.

In December, China's exports to the United States, Japan, the European Union and Hongkong fell by 2.1, 8.4, 9.6 and 4.9 percentage points respectively, which only increased 1.5 percentage points to ASEAN's export growth rate. Meanwhile, in the five economies, China's export growth rate to the US was positive in December.

Throughout 2016, China's export growth trend towards the United States, Japan, the European Union and ASEAN was similar to the trend of overall exports: mainly small two-way volatility, and mostly in the negative range, but the export situation of Hongkong showed a significant decline.

In addition, compared to the steady and weak export growth rate, the economic situation of all countries improved significantly. From the perspective of PMI, PMI in the US, Europe, Japan and Hong Kong all went up to varying degrees in 2016. In December, the PMI values of four economies were also all expanding.

The improvement of the fundamentals of the main peripheral economies will form a certain support for China's future export trend.

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