The Stock Market Continued To Climb Steadily During The Year, And The Impact Of The Exchange Rate Was Quite Large.

Last year, the "8. 11" exchange rate reform, the RMB against the U.S. dollar is close to 6.5, triggering a sharp decline in A shares. During the new year's day, the yuan broke through 6.6 against the US dollar, leading to a sharp fall in the market after the new year's day and triggering a fuse.

The two time the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate caused the shadow of the stock market decline, and still touched the nerves of investors.

During the National Day holiday, the RMB Offshore exchange rate continued to rise, and broke through the 6.7 important juncture. According to the first two experiences, the stock market should have a more obvious decline after the holiday, but the result exceeded expectations.

Many investors believe that the expected performance of the post holiday market is related to the restriction policy of the property market during the National Day holiday. In fact, the purchase of the property market will cause the capital to enter the stock market, which is more reflected in a psychological expectation.

The bad digestion mainly comes from the inherent logic of RMB depreciation and the basic economic orientation of the domestic economy.

The market performance of the week after the National Day is commendable. On Monday, the gap left by the high jump after the high jump left no time to make up for the gap, and it directly compensated for the downward gap gap left in September 23rd, and steadily launched the attack along the five day moving average to the downward gap gap left in September 12th.

In fact, before the National Day holiday, investors are cautious about the trend of post holidays. One of the main reasons is that the yuan was formally joined in the SDR in October 1st. The market generally believes that RMB will devalue after joining the SDR.

Near the US presidential election, Trump, who once threatened to impose 45% punitive tariffs on China, has more negative news recently, and the support rate has dropped significantly. It also dispel doubts about the international situation and the Chinese economy. Once the 45% punitive tariffs are imposed, it will have a major impact on the domestic and even international economy.

Therefore, the exchange rate is stable in the medium and long term.

Against the backdrop of favorable returns and rising corporate profits, the stock market continued to rise steadily during the year and the index reached a new high.

First of all, the current depreciation of the renminbi is not related to the formal accession of SDR to investors, but because of the rise of the US dollar index and the sudden collapse of the pound.

The rise led to a certain degree of depreciation of the major international currencies, while the "flash collapse" of the pound led to further devaluation of the euro.

RMB's accession to the SDR will increase the international demand of the RMB. At the same time, it can not separate the renminbi by SDR. Therefore, the devaluation of the RMB has nothing to do with the formal accession to the SDR. It is only caused by the international environmental impact.

Then, the fundamental reason for affecting the RMB exchange rate is the domestic economic fundamentals.

At present, the domestic economic fundamentals have exceeded expectations, mainly reflected in the demand for industrial goods.

At the beginning of this year, the market generally expected that there was a serious excess inventory of domestic main industrial products, and even held a certain skepticism about the "capacity to go" policy. However, at the end of the three quarter, there was a shortage of main industrial products, which led to a rise in the prices of mineral, metal and chemical industrial products. The most typical case was that the price of mobile coal rose nearly double that of the end of last year. Meanwhile, the import volume of iron ore in September hit a new high and a record high in history.

There are two points to be judged from the performance of industrial products. On the one hand, productivity has been achieved. On the other hand, domestic demand for industrial products is not as sluggish as expected by the market.

Under the premise of good economic fundamentals, the RMB exchange rate does not have the basis for long-term sustained depreciation.