The Cotton Spinning Market Should Rely More On The Raw Material Market.

At present, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has gradually narrowed to 1000 yuan / ton, and the international competitiveness of domestic cotton textile enterprises has picked up. It is estimated that the low cost advantage of cotton inventory in the short term will obviously push forward the gross margin level of enterprises, and enlarge the profit elasticity of enterprises at the same time of the increase of order volume.

After the new cotton market came into being in September, under the tight market supply pattern, state cotton storage is still the main force to make up for the gap in the market supply, but there is still a possibility of callback in the latter stage.

It is concluded that the domestic cotton price will be at 1.2-1.4 million yuan / ton in the whole year, and there is little probability of large fluctuation in 2016 years.

The future trend of the cotton textile market should rely more on the raw material market, and the sales side will depend on how long the downstream production season will last.

Is there any further improvement?

Most people in the market believe that this year's market will remain stable at the current price level. It is estimated that there has been no fall or rise again. Cotton yarn prices have remained basically unchanged, and some of the local sales have been sold. The sales volume of quality cotton yarn has occupied the mainstream. The import volume of imported cotton yarn is less than that of the early stage. Most of the cotton fabrics are sold domestically, and the quality of foreign trade export returns and so on.

Sales of conventional C32S and JC21S are still available. The demand for low spun yarn is significantly reduced, other specifications are more general, the overall price of blended yarn is maintained, and the turnover is generally; the price of pure polyester yarn is slipped; the turnover of 10S and 30S of cotton yarn is acceptable, and the price is stable.

And the specific situation is that the cotton yarn market is also strong, which is affected by the rise of cotton. Part of the high and medium yarn orders have increased slightly. The price of Shandong JC50S compact spinning is 27200 yuan / ton.

Domestic cotton demand is generally 600-700 tons.

Currently inside and outside

The difference has narrowed to a reasonable level, and the average cotton price difference between home and abroad has averaged at 1500 yuan / tonne for 15 years.

Because of the quota, the outer cotton entered the Chinese market with imported yarn. In 2015, the import of cotton yarn was 2 million 345 thousand tons (according to 1.1 cotton blending, about 257 tons of cotton), an increase of 14.14% over the same period last year.

But 16 years later, with the gradual increase of domestic cotton prices in line with international standards, the import momentum of cotton yarn has slowed down significantly.

According to customs statistics, 16 years and 1-5 months, China's total imports of cotton yarn 80.36 million tons, down 18.87% compared with the same period last year, the reduction of cotton yarn imports were replaced by domestic cotton consumption, Everbright Securities researcher Li Jie believes that this is a good news for domestic market cotton consumption.

But at the same time, the substitution of chemical fiber and other cotton fibers is constantly increasing. Many cotton textile enterprises tend to produce blended yarns. With the global economic slowdown, domestic textile enterprises move to Southeast Asia and other regions, and inhibit the growth of domestic cotton demand.

Overall, domestic

It is difficult to achieve substantial growth and basically remain stable.

According to the latest forecast of ICAC, China's cotton consumption in 2016 was 6 million 750 thousand tons, down by 5.06% compared with the same period last year.

Li Jie said that the price of domestic cotton textile enterprises generally adopts the mode of cost plus pricing, and the price basis is determined with market price, which is more constrained by the price of cotton. The cost depends mainly on the price of cotton.

Because the general enterprise should maintain at least 2-3 months' inventory, and the raw material price is the historical price, resulting in the cost change lags behind the price change of raw materials.

That is, in the initial stage of cotton price rising, the cost of inventory cotton is lagging behind the increase of product prices, and the profit margin of enterprises has expanded. In the late period of cotton price rising, the cost has been rising rapidly, and the profit space of enterprises has been compressed; in the initial stage of cotton price falling, the cost of stock cotton is still at a high level, and the price of products has begun to decline, and the profits of enterprises have been squeezed; in the late period of cotton price falling, the cost has declined rapidly, and the profit space of enterprises has begun to recover.