The Hope For China'S Economy To Run Well In The Second Half Is Still Great.

In the context of the global economic downside risks, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently lowered the world economic growth forecast for the next two years, but at the same time raised the forecast of China's economic growth this year.

"Despite the challenges posed by economic restructuring and reform, the long-term and long-term prospects for China's economy are bright."

Lagarde, President of IMF, gave reasons for China's economy.

Recently, there are many voices in the international community that affirm China's economy. In particular, some relevant organizations and media believe that China's economic supply side structural reform measures are effective, economic pressure is stronger, more resilient, and growth is more sustainable. China's "collapse theory" and "hard landing theory" are no longer available.

From the economic fundamentals, there is every reason for the outside world to cast a vote of confidence in China.

In the first half of this year, faced with many difficulties and challenges at home and abroad, the Chinese government stabilized the macroeconomic policy orientation and pushed ahead with structural reforms. The economic growth rate remained at 6.7%, and the economic operation was steady and steady.

The characteristics are more obvious.

For example, China's service industry continues to grow rapidly, and it is the largest industry in the national economy. It has become the main driving force for steady growth and the main way to absorb employment. The expansion of domestic demand and consumption has made positive progress. Economic growth is mainly driven by domestic demand, and domestic demand is mainly driven by consumption. The structural reform of supply side is landing, and the five tasks of "three go down, one subsidy and one subsidy" has achieved initial success.

There is no need to say that, although the "report card" in the first half of the year is possible, the basis of China's economic stability is still not strong, the economic trend is still differentiated, the pain of the adjustment is still continuing, the new economy, new kinetic energy are developing well, but the scale is still difficult to be equal to the traditional kinetic energy.

Many economists believe that

To run well in the second half, we must first grasp the current economic situation correctly.

In this regard, we must have a sense of urgency and a strategic vision. We should pay particular attention to pcending the short-term and partial surface phenomena.

From the trend, the fundamentals of China's economic development have not changed for a long time. The basic characteristics of economic resilience, full potential and large room for maneuver have not changed. The good support foundation and conditions for sustained economic growth have not changed, and the trend of economic structural adjustment and optimization has not changed.

This means that the short term pressure can be seen in a longer cycle. It may just be the new curved surface of the wave and the new spiral curve.

For example, the first half of the region, industry

The problem of differentiation is more prominent, but it should be realized that there is no further adjustment if the adjustment brings differentiation.

At present, new changes in industry and demand structure, and new bright spots in the development of various regions, all indicate that China's economy is accumulating energy in the process of continuous differentiation.

According to Sheng Sheng Yun, a spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, from the medium to long term, China's modernization process is still advancing, and industrialization and urbanization have not been completed. The consumption structure is at a critical stage of upgrading. With a solid material foundation, huge human capital stock and broad development space, and so on, a series of fundamental factors determine the potential and conditions for China's economy to maintain high and medium speed growth.

However, the potential of economic growth will not automatically become a reality of economic growth.

In the second half of the year, the global economy will still be trapped in low speed growth. The downward pressure on China's economy will still be larger, and the dilemma and difficulties of macroeconomic regulation will increase.

Don't be afraid of clouds.

Only by correctly understanding the fundamentals of the economy can we strengthen our confidence, maintain our strength and face difficulties, maintain the continuity and stability of policies, enhance the pertinence and effectiveness of policies, and promote the steady and steady progress of the economy, so as to ensure the completion of the main target of economic and social development throughout the year.