Xiao Yuqing: Xinjiang Cotton Still Shocks Downside Risks And Opportunities Coexist

Xinjiang's cotton quality and output have both declined, and cotton markets have been listed. Cotton enterprises are generally bearish and cautious in the market. The market is not optimistic, especially in southern Xinjiang.

Cotton growers do not make money and cotton mills generally lose money, which has a great impact on the development of the entire cotton industry.

In October 14th,

On the two Executive Council of the three session, Xiao Yuqing, chairman of Xinjiang Cotton Industry Group Co., Ltd. introduced the situation of Xinjiang's local cotton.

He said that the 2014 year target price reform pilot achieved remarkable results and achieved the expected goal, and the 2015 plan was perfected.

Among them, theoretically, the target price reform is 19800 yuan / ton, but due to the divergence of output statistics, the Bureau of statistics is 3 million 600 thousand tons, and the actual Xinjiang is 4 million 700 thousand tons. Cotton farmers have actually reached 18200 yuan / ton, and the subsidy that cotton farmers get has a certain gap with the expected price. This price has an impact on the cotton farmers' judgement of the production situation and price.

From the planting situation in 2015, the area of Xinjiang (including Corps) decreased by 33 million mu, down by 9.5%.

Output also declined, with data from several parties, 420, 4 million tons, the most pessimistic 3 million 600 thousand tons, high temperature in July, low temperature after September, and double decline in output and quality.

In the 15 year, cotton market has been listed, cotton enterprises are generally bearish in the latter market, cautious in acquisition, and the market situation is not very optimistic, especially in southern Xinjiang.

In terms of cotton farmers, they are reluctant to sell because prices are lower than expected.

The basic analysis of the situation is still going on since 2014, and the risks and opportunities coexist.

At present, global cotton supply exceeds demand, textile consumption is not strong, domestic economy is down, and the cotton market is facing multiple uncertainties.

There is a risk of overall loss or even bankruptcy in the market. The cotton market is sluggish. The loss of the textile industry is increasing. The proportion of profit making enterprises in the first half of the year is very small. The main cotton mill reflects the difficulty in selling cotton.

40% clothes, 13% water seed cotton at 5.6-5.7 yuan / kg, cotton seed price dropped to 1.6 yuan, kg. The hang up factory assumes a larger market risk, resulting in some cotton ginning mills have to cut down the purchase price of seed cotton.

In addition, the local planting area is relatively small, planting costs are increasing, freight costs, including the extension of the cycle, the cost increases, the sales cycle continues to extend, the cost of time increases.

Many enterprises are losing money and cotton is unsalable.

This year

Less than 28 mm last year, generally less than 27 mm and below accounted for 60-70%, it is difficult to appear more than 28 millimeters, for spinning 40 or more difficulties.

The length of machine picked cotton is generally better than that of hand picking cotton.

Cotton enterprises do not accept less than 26 millimeters. This is mainly due to the climate and variety of Xinjiang. The sustainability of high quality cotton production base is worrying.

Cotton growers do not make money and cotton mills generally lose money, which has a great impact on the development of the entire cotton industry.

What we should do next is to grasp all aspects of the industry. Cotton growers, processing, circulation and textile enterprises are exploring the overall development.