PTA: Risk Return Is Better Than Doing More.

Upstream, the current 50 US dollars / barrel crude oil price, referring to the crude oil historical trend, except for the financial crisis, belongs to the lower price level, and the current crude oil electronic disk is the pattern of rising water in the far months, and there is a demand for price fixing in the later stage.

The downstream looms and grey ends will benefit from lower raw material prices and relatively stable product prices, and profits will remain at a good level, which will result in a strong demand for raw materials for downstream looms.

For polyester factories, the downward shift of profits caused by the downstream profits may change the long-term pessimism of polyester factories in recent years.

The polyester factory itself is considering the safety production. In the case of low inventory, increasing stock of raw materials is also a reasonable choice.

This will enhance the demand for PTA, especially in the seasonal demand season (3-5 months).

If there is a boom in production and marketing and a decline in stocks during the peak season of demand, with the rebound in crude oil prices, the optimal strategy of polyester factories is to increase raw material procurement and increase raw material inventory. The replenishment of factories will drive spot prices up and reverse the pessimism before the market.

Terminal, along with

With the progress of science and technology as well as the widening of the price difference between cotton and polyester, the new materials such as polyester at the later stage will be more widely applied in the textile end with the continuous innovation of fabric and technology.

Finally, from the historical comparison between oil price and PTA spot price, the current PTA price is at relatively low level.

Different from the market structure at that time.

From the perspective of PTA- cotton futures contract ratio and PTA- cotton contract price difference, PTA price is also at a low level.

Considering the substitution effect of polyester on Cotton (lower oil price, the substitution effect is more obvious), the price of PTA may also be limited at the later stage.

Through the above analysis, the current PTA

It may not be the bottom, but it may be near the bottom.

PTA prices have experienced long-term decline for more than 5 years. After a full fall, they will rebound in 2015.

Anticipation of the fundamentals of empty fermentation triggers price shocks to fall. At the end of 1 and early February, the price of low price was around 4300 yuan / ton. In early March, prices rebounded to 5180 yuan / ton at the end of 5 as the demand rebounded. In the 6 and July (the Fed raised interest rates and expected demand season), it experienced a short-term adjustment of 5000 yuan / ton. At the end of July and early August, the summer travel peak, typhoon and hurricane seasonal factors in Europe and the United States rebounded with the crude oil price to 6180 yuan / ton in the beginning of December.