Huang Yanming'S Voice Again: Bull Market Runs Through 2015

In the near future, the Shanghai stock index has a wide range of shocks before 3400, and the market view also disagrees with the future trend of the bull market.

Huang Yanming, the director of the Guotai Junan Research Institute, made a few comments on the market recently, and again issued a research report jointly with the chief macroeconomic analyst Ren Zeping. He reiterated that the current market logic remained unchanged, and the bull market would run through 2015.

According to the research report, in the 2010-2013 years, due to the lack of enough understanding of the necessity of speed shifting and the necessity of reform, the progress of reform slowed down, and the old growth mode refused to be cleared. It formed three big black holes in capital, plus leveraged debt cycles, expanding the demand for ineffective capital and pushing up risk-free interest rates.

As the new central leadership group pushed ahead with reform in 2014, market risk preferences improved significantly.

Since the two quarter of 2014, the real estate sector, which has a high degree of marketization in the three big black holes, has launched a long period of liquidation, and has forced the clearing of the two major areas of the system.

The reform of finance, taxation and state owned enterprises has accelerated the pace of blocking the three major capital black holes, shrinking the inefficient financing needs, creating conditions for policy easing, guiding risk free interest rates to fall, and enhancing risk preferences.

The risk-free interest rate has lowered the yield of shadow banking products, and the risk-taking preference has improved the confidence of all sectors of the community to restore China's future confidence and start to configure stocks representing future assets, capital flows from real estate and shadow banking to the stock market, and the stock market gets rid of the stock game dilemma and moves towards the new era of incremental game.

According to the research report, the "pitional cattle" and "reform cattle" launched in 2014 were similar to 1996-2001 years in China, 1970-1980 years in Japan, 1983-1992 years in Taiwan and 1992-2002 years in Korea.

This bull market can be summarized as follows: reform blocking capital black holes, shrinking inefficient financing needs, and

Loosely create conditions to guide risk-free interest rates to fall. Reform will improve resource allocation efficiency, enhance risk preference, restore social confidence and guide incremental capital into the market.

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In the future, the research report thinks that in early 2015, the bull market entered the second wave, and the fast bull entered the slow bull stage, and the wave increased.

The speed up of reform is confirmed by the market, the dividend will be released for a long time, the bottom of the speed shifting shift is gradually proved, the tail risk of the economic stall will disappear, and the capacity to leverage is still going on; the repair of the valuation will enter a reasonable interval, and the central shift will be further driven by the decline in interest rates, the improvement of risk preference and the improvement of profitability. The regulators will take care of the bull market, wait for the slow cow, supervise the two loans and entrust loans, investors will have a willingness to go to leveraged funds, and the increment of capital inflows will decrease.

"Black swan" dances, the Fed's mid-term increase in interest rates, commodity plummeting, European QE, emerging economic debt crisis, disturbing the international market and pmitting to the domestic.

After the second half of 2015, the bull market may enter the third wave, and there may be a big wave.

Economic bottom, price deflation, enterprises usher in the dawn of profit, state-owned enterprises reform, 13th Five-Year plan and other heavy policy landing; loose policy, further decline in interest rates, further increase of risk preference, shift of valuation center, release of favorable regulatory authorities to launch registration system, increase of IPO supply worries and early digestion and mitigation.