Textile Off-Season Forecast August Prices Continue To Fall

Here world clothing shoes The little weave of the hat net is introduced to you. Spin The characteristics of the off-season are becoming more and more obvious, and the market in August continued to bearish.

In July 31st, the textile index was 972 points, a 9.50% decrease from the highest point in the cycle (2013-02-19), up 4.52% from the 930 lowest point on 2012 07, 2012. (Note: cycle 2011-12-01 to 2014-07-31)

According to price monitoring, in the 07 months of 2014, there were 5 kinds of commodities rising and falling in the list of commodity prices. The top 3 commodities were acrylonitrile (2.91%), acrylic (0.90%) and nylon staple (0.83%).

There were 14 kinds of commodities with a decrease of 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the total number of goods monitored. The top 3 products were polyester POY (-5.97%), polyester FDY (-3.24%) and viscose staple fiber (-3.19%).

In July 2014, the bulk of the textile industry increased by -1.25%.

Textile commodities from July Price The rise and fall list shows that there are two main points in the textile market in July: first, it will fall more or less. 23.81% of them rose and 66.67% fell. Secondly, chemical fiber plate products differentiated, acrylonitrile industrial chain continued to rise, nylon industry chain stabilized, PTA, viscose industry chain fell.

The biggest increase this month was acrylonitrile, or 2.91%. The supply of acrylonitrile spot market is tight and inventory is not high, with an average operating rate of over 91%. Tight state of supply seems to be difficult to change in the short term, and prices are expected to remain high. The nylon market has stabilized steadily this month, and has been rising frequently by upstream caprolactam. Although the downstream demand is still weak, manufacturers are not allowed to raise the price of products under pressure of cost, but do not rule out a slight drop in prices later.

The PTA industry chain, which pulled up the textile market in June, has fallen this month, which is also the main reason leading to the overall decline of the textile market in July. Affected by the PTA limited production price increase, the factory operating rate remained at around 70%, the market supply was tight, and the settlement price was higher this month. The PTA market volatility was the main factor this month, with a decrease of 0.49%. The upstream PX was running high, but the demand for the downstream textile was not enough in the off-season, and the polyester filament and staple market were obviously lower. Among them, the biggest decline was the polyester POY fell by 5.97%. With the PX domestic and foreign device restart and new capacity investment expected, the cost side will weaken, and the PTA industry chain market is expected to continue to decline.

In June, due to the insufficient export power of textiles, although it was still growing year by year, the growth rate gradually declined. China's exports of textiles and clothing were about $25 billion 647 million, an increase of 6.46% over the same period last year, an increase of 2.24 percentage points from the previous month. Imports were also not ideal. In June, China's imports of textiles and clothing were about $2 billion 193 million, an increase of 3.17% over the same period last year, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the same period last year. In July, the supply and demand index of commodity supply BCI was -0.25, which rose by 0.06%, reflecting the contraction of the manufacturing economy in the previous month, and the economy is still at the bottom.

The operating rate will continue to decline in August. In July, only about 6 of the cotton spinning enterprises in Shandong started work, most of them were above 100 thousand spindles. The operating rate of enterprises in Hebei, Henan and Jiangsu was also between 55-70%, which was about 5% lower than that in early June, and 70% in polyester factories and 62% in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms. It is expected that the characteristics of the off-season in August will become more obvious, with the increase of the loss power of enterprises, the operating rate will further decline.

The demand is more and more low, which restricts the price. Inventory will also continue to increase. At present, the inventory of polyester factories has increased to varying degrees. Cotton yarn inventory has reached 42 days, which is 7 days higher than that in June.

At the same time, for cotton spinning Market in 2014, Xinjiang cotton Direct Subsidy Plan details have not yet been announced, the trend of policy and the large stock of national storage cotton store and other issues, cotton prices generally bearish; the chemical fiber market, although through its own limited production and other means of insurance, but the cost side weak expectations, so that prices after the market is not optimistic.

To sum up, many unfavorable factors superimposed in August are expected. Textile market Will continue to explore. But by the arrival of the peak season of textile industry in September, it is expected that the market will improve at the end of 8.