Temporary Storage Policy To Withdraw From Domestic Cotton Will Be Fully Into The Market

< p > < strong > planting area of American cotton increased < /strong > /p >

< p > June 30th, USDA reported that the actual planting area of the United States cotton in 2014 was 11 million 369 thousand acres, an increase of 9.2% over the same period last year, an increase of 2.4% over the 11 million 101 thousand acre planting area in March.

Among them, the largest cotton producing area - Dezhou sown area of 6 million 450 thousand acres, an increase of 11.2% over the same period.

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< p > > a href= "http://? Www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > Mei cotton < /a > planting area increased, reinforcing the expected increase in output.

In June, the USDA supply and demand report estimated that the output of US cotton in 2014 was 3 million 270 thousand tons, an increase of 460 thousand tons compared with that in 2013.

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< p > < strong > < a > href= > http:// > www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > India < /a > planting lag behind > /strong > /p >

< p > statistical data of the Cotton Development Bureau of the Ministry of agriculture of India showed that as of June 25th, the total cotton planting area in China was 2 million 910 thousand hectares, a decrease of 2 million 600 thousand hectares compared with the same period last year.

The main producing areas are 530 thousand hectares and 230 thousand hectares in Gujarat and the state of hajarat respectively, lagging behind 1 million 100 thousand hectares and 1 million 600 thousand hectares in the same period last year.

The slow progress of southwest monsoon is the main reason for sowing delay.

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< p > cotton production is expected to be reduced mainly from the perspective of El Nino phenomenon in India.

According to the briefing issued by the World Meteorological Organization in June 26th, the probability of the formation of El Nino phenomenon from 6 to August this year is 60%, 10 - December, and the probability of formation is 75% - 80%.

Most of the cotton in India is raised by rain water. From 6 to September, the southwest monsoon will bring sufficient rainfall to the cotton area, which is the necessary condition for the high yield of cotton in India.

At present, the southwest monsoon mainly brings rainfall to the southeast and southwest areas, and has not yet entered the central cotton area, so it is not conducive to cotton production.

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< p > June USDA predicted that cotton production in India in 2014 was 6 million 204 thousand tons, down 436 thousand tons compared to the same period, and exported 1 million 240 thousand tons, down 670 thousand tons compared with the same period last year.

At present, India's new cotton market has quoted prices, mainly from 82 to 85 cents / pounds.

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< p > < strong > domestic market supply exceeds demand < /strong > < /p >

< p > the national cotton market monitoring system began to survey cotton sowing area in mid May. The results showed that in 2014, the actual sown area of cotton in China was 63 million 240 thousand mu, a decrease of 9 million 15 thousand mu compared with that of March, a decrease of 12.5%, a decrease of 1.7% compared with the March intention survey.

According to the data of cotton information network, cotton production in China is expected to be 6 million 350 thousand tons this year, while the estimated value of USDA is 6 million 430 thousand tons.

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< p > November 28, 2013 to June 30, 2014, the total amount of dumping and storage of national reserve cotton was 2 million 50 thousand tons, and the average monthly turnover was 290 thousand tons.

From the paction rate, entering the June, turnover rate continued to decline, the actual turnover of 270 thousand tons in that month.

At the end of August, the current round of storage is expected to be 500 thousand tons in July and August, and 2 million 550 thousand tons of the total volume of the stock are sold.

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< p > September 2013 to May 2014, China accumulatively imported 2 million 300 thousand tons of cotton, calculated by an average of 250 thousand tons per month, and imported 3 million 50 thousand tons of cotton in 2013.

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< p > comprehensive industry data, the author predicts that domestic cotton output will reach 7 million 200 thousand tons in 2013.

In 2013, the total storage capacity was 6 million 300 thousand tons, and the production was reduced by less than a href= "http://? Www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > storage capacity < /a >, and the circulation of cotton on the market was 900 thousand tons.

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After the superposition of import volume, dumping reserve and fluxes, the domestic cotton consumption in 2013 is estimated to be 6 million 500 thousand tons in P.

The demand for cotton industry is weak, and there will not be much improvement in 2014. It is estimated that domestic cotton consumption will be up and down in 6 million 500 thousand in 2014.

On the whole, domestic cotton supply can meet the demand in 2014.

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< p > although China's cotton consumption accounts for a gradual decline in the proportion of global consumption, China is still the largest cotton consuming country in the world.

When domestic supply can fully satisfy consumption, it is expected that imports will shrink and directly curb the export demand of cotton.

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< p > the two major cotton producing countries in the world -- cotton production in China and India has declined in 2014, and India has a larger output variable due to the El Nino phenomenon.

On the face of it, cotton production has shrunk, but at present, domestic and foreign cotton prices have been dropping.

The fundamental reason is that the Chinese government has continued to withdraw from the market for three years. The cotton that originally entered the National Reserve will flow to the market, and they will compete with other countries in the world for sale.

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