The Survey Shows That China'S Textile And Clothing Industry Exceeded 50% In September

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing National Bureau of Statistics The PMI of China's manufacturing industry in September, released by the Service Industry Survey Center, was 49.8%, 0.6 percentage points higher than that of last month, and the index rebounded for the first time since May this year. Among the main sub indexes, only a few of them declined slightly, and most of them recovered to varying degrees, especially the major leading indexes such as new order index and raw material inventory index, which showed that the effect of national policies and measures to stabilize growth was gradually emerging, and the economic operation was gradually bottoming out and stabilizing, laying a good foundation for stable economic growth in the fourth quarter.

From the 11 sub indexes, only the finished product inventory index, employee index, and supplier delivery time index decreased slightly, while the other indexes recovered to varying degrees. By industry, agricultural and sideline food processing industry Textile clothing The clothing industry, food and beverage refined tea manufacturing industry, tobacco products industry and other eight industries are more than 50%; 13 industries, including electrical and mechanical equipment manufacturing, general equipment manufacturing, non-metallic mineral products, ferrous metal smelting and calendering, and textile, are less than 50%. According to the survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry in September, Zhang Liqun, a special analyst, said: "The PMI index rebounded in September, indicating that the signs of economic bottoming and stabilization tend to be obvious. The index of new orders rebounded, reflecting the steady growth of domestic investment and consumption demand; The index of new export orders rebounded, indicating that exports began to recover. The inventory index of finished products continued to decline, and the purchase index of raw materials rebounded, indicating that the de stocking activities of enterprises had basically ended. The recovery of the production index indicates that the production of enterprises has begun to recover due to the increase of orders. Based on comprehensive analysis, the downward trend of economic growth has begun to change, and it is expected that economic growth will rise slightly in the future. "

The index of new orders rebounded. The index of new orders this month was 49.8%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of industry, the tobacco products industry, textile clothing industry, food and beverage refined tea manufacturing industry, computer communication electronic equipment and instrumentation manufacturing industry, automobile manufacturing industry and other nine industries are more than 50%; Metal products industry, textile industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and other 12 industries are less than 50%. From the regional perspective, the eastern and northeastern regions are higher than 50%; Less than 50% in the central and western regions. From the perspective of enterprise scale, large enterprises are more than 50%; Medium sized enterprises are located at 50%; Small and micro enterprises are less than 50%.

The production index rose slightly. This month's production index was 51.3%, up 0.4 percentage points over the previous month. From the perspective of industry, 10 industries, including tobacco products industry, textile clothing industry, automobile manufacturing industry, agricultural and sideline food processing industry, computer communication electronic equipment and instrument manufacturing industry, are more than 50%; Ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry textile industry Metal products industry, electrical and mechanical equipment manufacturing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and other 11 industries are less than 50%.

The index of new export orders and import index rebounded. The index of new export orders this month was 48.8%, 2.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. In terms of industry, 11 industries, including nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, computer communication electronic equipment and instrument manufacturing industry, pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, textile clothing industry, agricultural and sideline food processing industry, are more than 50%; Metal products industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, chemical fiber and rubber and plastic products industry, special equipment manufacturing industry, textile industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and other 10 industries are less than 50%.

The import index of this month was 47.7%, up 0.7 percentage points over the previous month. In terms of industry, the manufacturing of computer communication electronic equipment and instruments, agricultural and sideline food processing, wood processing and furniture manufacturing are more than 50%; Metal products industry, special equipment manufacturing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and other 14 industries are less than 50%.

Finished goods inventory index declined. The inventory index of finished goods in this month was 47.9%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of industry, paper printing, cultural, educational, sports and entertainment products manufacturing, electrical and mechanical equipment manufacturing, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing and other six industries are more than 50%; Agricultural and sideline food processing industry and general equipment manufacturing industry account for 50%; 13 industries, including non-metallic mineral products industry, metal products industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, are less than 50%.

The purchase price index rebounded. The purchase price index of this month was 51%, 4.9 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. In terms of industry, 10 industries including petroleum processing and coking industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry, chemical fiber and rubber and plastic products industry are more than 50%; 11 industries, including ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, metal products industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, are less than 50%. From the regional perspective, the eastern and northeastern regions are higher than 50%; Less than 50% in the central and western regions.

Survey description of manufacturing purchasing managers

　　 1. Explanation of main indicators

The Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) is an index compiled through the statistical summary of the monthly survey results of enterprise purchasing managers. It covers all aspects of enterprise procurement, production, circulation, etc. It is one of the leading indexes commonly used internationally to monitor macroeconomic trends and has a strong forecasting and early warning role. PMI usually takes 50% as the dividing point of economic strength. When PMI is higher than 50%, it reflects the economic expansion of manufacturing industry; Less than 50% reflects the contraction of manufacturing economy.

2. Scope of investigation

820 sample enterprises were selected from the whole country to investigate the 31 major categories of manufacturing industry in the National Economic Industry Classification (GB/T4754-2011).

　 3. Investigation method

PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method is adopted in the survey of manufacturing purchasing managers. The sample size of the industry is distributed according to the proportion of its added value in the total added value of the manufacturing industry, and the probability of using the sample within the layer is proportional to the main business income of the enterprise.

This survey uses the online direct reporting method to conduct a monthly questionnaire survey on enterprise purchase managers.

　　 4. Calculation method

The questionnaire of manufacturing purchasing managers involves 11 questions, including production volume, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase volume, imports, purchase prices, raw material inventory, employees, and supplier delivery time. For each question, the diffusion index is calculated separately, that is, the percentage of the number of enterprises that answered positively plus half of the percentage that answered unchanged.

PMI is a composite index, which is weighted by 5 diffusion indexes (sub indexes). The five sub indexes and their weights are determined according to their leading influence on the economy. Specifically, it includes: new order index, with a weight of 30%; Production index, weight 25%; Employee index, with a weight of 20%; Supplier delivery time index, with weight of 15%; Raw material inventory index with a weight of 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is the inverse index, and the inverse operation is performed when synthesizing the PMI composite index.

5. Seasonal adjustment

The purchase manager survey is a monthly survey, and the data fluctuates greatly due to seasonal factors. The PMI composite index and all sub indexes released are seasonally adjusted data.