Cotton Demand Is Down, Cotton Prices Are Hard To Get.

In the context of the slow recovery of the global economy and the sluggish textile industry, cotton consumption demand is unlikely to rebound significantly in the short term, and there will be no major change in the loose supply and demand pattern of cotton market.

After the ups and downs in 2010 and 2011, since 2012,

Basically maintained in the vicinity of the purchase and storage prices, there has been no strong rebound.

In recent years, with the rising temperature, the spring sowing of cotton producing areas has started in the whole country. The cotton planting situation in the new year has attracted the attention of all parties, and the market funds are ready to wait for the emergence of available subjects.

Farmers' cotton planting intention has picked up

According to a survey conducted by the Chinese Cotton Association in March, the new cotton purchase and storage price increased by 600 yuan over the previous year after the new purchase and storage policy was released. Cotton growers were generally satisfied, and the decrease in cotton planting intention slowed down.

However, due to the overall downturn in the cotton market and the continued slight drop in cotton prices in recent years, cotton growers are still not enthusiastic in planting cotton and their planting intentions have dropped by 9.4% over the same period last year.

Production is expected to decline, but it still depends on the weather.

According to the China Cotton Association's planting intention statistics, the cotton planting area in 2012 was roughly 72 million 627 thousand mu.

In terms of planting area over the past years, the planting area of the new year is still above the average level.

If the yield per unit area is estimated to be 171 Jin / mu in the past five years, the output will be about 6 million 200 thousand tons.

If the weather is good, the output is likely to increase. Conversely, it may be down.

At present, the spring sowing has started. The Central Meteorological Observatory information shows that as of late April, the main cotton producing provinces in the country have better meteorological conditions and are more favorable for cotton planting.

Although the cotton planting in the new year has a good start, the weather will still have a great impact on the final output during the long growth of cotton.

We must pay close attention to weather changes later.

Demand is declining, supply and demand are loose.

Affected by the slow recovery of the global economy,

Shrinking demand has become an indisputable fact.

From the current macro data, it is feared that the recovery of cotton market demand will take a long time.

According to the April USDA supply and demand report, global supply is loose, mainly manifested in fine adjustment of production, decrease in consumption and increase in inventory.

China's consumption demand dropped to 42 million 500 thousand packs in 2011/2012, less than 1 million packages from last month, and the final inventory rose from 20 million 80 thousand packs last month to 23 million 80 thousand packages, making the inventory consumption ratio of 2011/2012 rise to a high level of 54.24%.

Overall, domestic cotton supply and demand will be in surplus for a long time.

Cotton prices are hard to see.

In the early March, a new round of cotton purchasing and storage policy was introduced, which gave the market a reassurance. The price of 20400 yuan / ton has been gradually recognized by cotton farmers and enterprises.

Purchasing and storing prices will generally become the base price of the corresponding varieties, so the cotton price in the future market will be hard to fall through this price effectively.

In addition, as of March, the total storage capacity of cotton in the 2011 year was nearly 3 million 100 thousand tons, of which 1 million 710 thousand tons in Xinjiang accounted for 55% of the total volume of the country, accounting for nearly 50% of the local output.

Such a huge amount of reserves in the late domestic regulation reserve sufficient weight, greatly reduced the possibility of large fluctuations in the domestic cotton.

Comparison of domestic cotton price and yarn price trend

Based on the above analysis, the global economic recovery is slow.

In the background of the sluggish industry, consumer demand has not seen any signs of warming. The process of domestic inventory reduction is slow, and the overall loose supply and demand pattern will not change much before the new cotton production.

At the same time, the new purchase and storage price will provide a solid bottom support for the market.

In the new year, cotton production will not be significantly reduced, and the narrow fluctuation in the interval will still be the main theme of the cotton market operation this year.