Financial Uncertainties In 2012

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Factor 1: will the international situation continue to deteriorate?

The European debt crisis, which erupted last year, has become the fuse of global economic change and has led to the change of the global exchange rate market in 2011.

The European debt crisis and its solution will be the most important factor affecting the global exchange rate market in 2012.

However, this year, whether the international situation will continue to deteriorate, though there are many pessimistic speculation, it is not yet known. This is also the most macroscopic and frustrating foreshadowing for China's financial management.

In order to cushion the consequences of the economic crisis, central banks continue to lower their benchmark interest rates, but this will lead to a lower LIBOR (London bank lending rate), which is an important reference for many banks to issue foreign currency earnings.

In addition, as the renminbi appreciates faster against the US dollar, some people change the renminbi into US dollars for financial management.

But we should also pay attention to reasonable collocation.

At present, the yield of US dollar financial products is still lower than that of RMB financial products.

The bottom line will probably be the hottest financial term this year.

Waiting for the domestic economy to bottom out.

As early as the third quarter of last year, some people in the industry predicted that the domestic economy would bottom out in the first half of this year.

But there are also opponents who believe that before China's economy bottoms up, the international economy must first see the bottom and the latter is still in an unknown state.

Factor 3 is it expected that the interest rate cut will come true?

Since the central bank lowered its deposit rate for the first time by 0.5 percentage points in December 5th last year, the expectation of a further cut in the deposit rate and interest rate cuts has never stopped.

It seems logical to cut interest rates after bank funds are abundant.

However, such expectations will once again test the way banks manage their finances: if they cut interest rates, are they deposits or investments?

Credit products have always been popular among financial products.

The profits of these products are derived from the loan yield of banks to enterprises.

If interest rates are cut, a large number of enterprises will repay the loan in advance to the original old loans, so as to reduce the financing cost, and also lead to the premature termination of credit products, or the rate of return of the finished products can not achieve the expected return.

In addition, most of the RMB financial products issued by banks currently focus on the central bank bills, treasury bonds and bond repurchases in the inter-bank market. The yield of investment targets has been greatly reduced, and the yield of related products has continued to decline.

Factor 4: will inflation continue?

In April last year, the bull market of international and domestic commodity markets drove the prices of commodities and agricultural products soaring all the way, which is also the time of high inflation in China.

In order to cater to the market demand, banks also issued a large number of structured products linked to commodities.

And then the price of oil marked the sharp decline of commodity prices, the domestic metal and agricultural products prices have also been discounted.

Summing up the popularity of bank wealth management products in 2011, it was also somewhat crazy about buying crazy sales, and what did it do to promote the hot situation of bank financial products.

At present, the level of domestic inflation can be controlled, but whether the inflation will continue to rise after the deposit rate is lowered, and whether wealth will continue to shrink is another topic of concern for the market.