The Central Bank Has Launched Net &Nbsp For Nine Consecutive Weeks, And Short-Term Interest Rates Continue Upward.

Paying deposits in small and medium banks

At the same time, due to the presence of assessment pressure at the end of September, market sentiment is still cautious, pushing the interest rate of capital to rise in the last two trading days. Yesterday, Shanghai interbank offered rate (Shibor) overnight varieties stood on 3% again, and 14 days interest rates approached 4%.

However, compared with the previous stage, the overall assets are relatively loose.

This week

The people's Bank of China announced yesterday that it issued 2 billion yuan central bank votes in the open market on March, issuing interest rates continued to be flat, and the central bank also conducted a 10 billion yuan 91 day repo operation on that day.

At this point, the central bank returned 132 billion yuan of funds in the open market this week, and this week's open market is 139 billion yuan, and this week the net investment has been 7 billion yuan.

Although net investment dropped sharply compared with last week, it has been the central bank's ninth consecutive week of net investment and the cumulative release of liquidity of 351 billion yuan.

On Tuesday, the central bank issued a 10 billion yuan 1 year central bank ticket, with an increase of 7 billion yuan compared with the previous period, and the interest rate continued unchanged. At the same time, 80 billion yuan 7 days, 30 billion yuan 28 days repo operation were carried out.

On that day, 120 billion yuan was recovered.

Despite the central bank's intention to maintain "stability" for a long time, with the expansion of the deposit reserve scope, the small and medium-sized commercial banks paid the reserve to the central bank yesterday after the six major banks' payment was made on the 5 day of this month. It is expected to turn in about 70 billion yuan.

Affected by this, the interest rate of funds ended from Wednesday and the short-term interest rates continued upward on Thursday.

As of yesterday's close, Shibor short term varieties continued to rise, of which 14 days interest rate rose more significantly, the interest rate for one month or more decreased slightly.

Among them, the Shibor overnight interest rate was 3.1933%, up 23.58 percentage points from the previous day; the 7 day interest rate was 3.3433%, up 5.50 percentage points from the previous day; the 14 day interest rate was 3.9583%, up 39.49 percentage points from the previous day; 1 month interest rate was 5.2583%, down by 4.17 percentage points from the previous day.

In the inter-bank bond market, except for 21 days' cross month varieties, the rest of the buyback varieties have risen to varying degrees.

The central government debt registration Clearing Corp data showed that the repo rate rose 22.8 basis points to 3.2% on Thursday in 1 days, 2.9 basis points to 3.328% in 7 days, and 39 basis points to 3.953% in 14 days.

Nanjing securities fixed income department pointed out that in fact, the interest rate of funds has been upward trend recently. However, after the market was pessimistic about the intensity of funds, the liquidity tension began to ease slightly, and the overall interest rate of capital gains narrowed.

"The accumulation of short-term open market business has the meaning of" crossing the river by feeling the stones, "and it also makes the market anticipation more complicated and the price fluctuation frequency quickening.

One trader said.

Some analysts believe that in addition to the reserve payment, as the end of September quarter approaching, in the short term, there is no obvious downward momentum in the interest rate of funds.

However, Sheng Hongqing, chief macroeconomic analyst at micro-blog (3.04,0.00,0.00%), said that considering the net investment in the open market and the inflow of foreign exchange, the funds would not be too tight. "In October, about 400 billion of the public market funds will expire, and the money market interest rate will remain low."

Li Maoyu, an analyst with 8.91,0.00,0.00% who is also optimistic, pointed out in the weekly interest rate weekly report published on Tuesday that "the impact of the new rules on the capital market on the central bank's reserves is not as strong and persistent as expected, and that the market is expected to have a relatively adequate lead."

According to Li Maoyu analysis, the size of the foreign exchange account has become an important factor affecting the capital market after the scale of the funds in the open market and the reserve fund have been locked.

Historically, in August, under the premise that foreign exchange holdings were not high, the foreign exchange occupation in September might have picked up, making the probability of returning to capital easy.

Liu Junyu, a fixed income analyst at 11.59,0.00,0.00% (micro-blog), believes that the market funds will remain tight until the fiscal deposit is released in December.

Especially for small and medium-sized banks, the impact of deposit return is far greater than the six major industries. "Unless the central bank will further relax the deposit rate of small and medium banks, the fluctuation of capital will become the norm."

"As the central bank is in the period of policy observation, there will not be a downward trend in the interest rate of funds. It is expected that the short jump interest rate will continue for a period of time due to various irregular liquidity shocks.

But the short-term interest rate is hard to get back to the height of 6 and July, 12.27,0.00,0.00% said.