M2 Growth Rate Dropped To 14.7%&Nbsp; Monetary Policy Or Observation Period.

The July financial data released by the central bank yesterday showed that loan Lower than market expectations, deposits dropped sharply, M2 grew by only 14.7%, a record low in recent years. Industry experts believe that this series of data shows that early intensive control has been effective. In the coming period, the central bank will consider the use of monetary policy tools in the light of the international and domestic economic situation, or that monetary policy will enter an observation period.

At the end of 7, the balance of broad currency (M2) was 77 trillion and 290 billion yuan, an increase of 14.7% over the same period last year, which was 1.2 and 2.9 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period last year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 27 trillion and 60 billion yuan, up 11.6% over the same period last year, which was 1.5 and 11.3 percentage points lower than the end of last year and the same period last year. The currency in circulation (M0) was 4 trillion and 520 billion yuan, an increase of 14.3% over the same period last year.

In the month, RMB loans increased by 492 billion 600 million yuan, or less than 25 billion 200 million yuan over the same period. At the end of 7, the balance of broad currency (M2) was 77 trillion and 290 billion yuan, up 14.7% from the same period last year, which is 1.2 and 2.9 percentage points lower than the end of last year and the same period last year, and 492 billion 600 million yuan of new loans is lower than market expectations. From the structural point of view, the credit growth rate has changed little, household loans increased by 176 billion 200 million yuan, still slightly lower, in July, the paper financing increased by 65 billion 300 million yuan, positive for four consecutive months.

Shenyin Wanguo Negotiable securities Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst at the Research Institute, said that the money supply and deposit and loan increment data in July were lower than expected, especially in the case of negative deposits. This is related to two factors: first, the sharp fluctuations of financial products such as banks and other financial institutions resulted in a significant reduction in household deposits and other departments' deposits. Two, due to the tight macroeconomic policy adopted by the state, the corresponding new loans were reduced. He believes that the growth of money supply in August will depend on the direction of macro-control policy and will remain low in the first place.

China Merchants Bank (600036) analysts believe that in accordance with the current rate of loan delivery, this year the scale of credit can be completely controlled within the target. In addition, the growth rate of M2 has dropped to a new low this year, and the derivative function of money has declined. From all kinds of signs, the central bank's previous monetary policy effect is emerging.

If the tightening effect can be sustained in the next few months, the pressure of domestic price inflation will gradually ease, coupled with the economic turmoil in the United States and Europe, the central bank will have some subtle changes in its attitude towards monetary policy, and the intensity of monetary policy regulation may slow down, the analyst said.

Zhou Jingtong, senior economist at the Bank of China (601988) strategic development department, believes that the next step is to say that the pace of tightening monetary policy may slow down, or that the intensity will not be further strengthened, but there may be little relaxation.

Another notable data is deposit 。 In July, RMB deposits decreased by 668 billion 700 million yuan, a decrease of 816 billion 600 million yuan compared with the same period last year. Among them, household deposits decreased by 665 billion 600 million yuan, deposits of non-financial enterprises decreased by 405 billion 700 million yuan, and fiscal deposits increased by 459 billion 200 million yuan. Analysts said that while RMB loans increased by 492 billion 600 million yuan, deposits dropped by 668 billion 700 million yuan, indicating that funds are still flowing from various financial institutions to the market. Inflation conditions are still improving despite monetary conditions.

Shi Lei, research director of Ping An Securities fixed income department, thinks that the reduction of deposits is a normal phenomenon, and the increase in June is more severe. He believes that this indicates that the policy is in the waiting period, which is good news for stock market and bond market.

Other analysts believe that under the situation of controlling inflation is still the primary goal, interest rates will continue, and the operation of the open market will gradually increase.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications (601328), thinks that from the past years, the new loan in the second half of this year will be reduced compared with the first half of the year, and the credit demand in the second half of this year may slow down. The new loan scale in the second half of this year is expected to remain at around 500 billion yuan. He believes that the next step will be a prudent monetary policy. operation Stage.

"Rational use of interest rates and other means of price regulation, regulating capital demand and investment saving behavior, and managing inflation expectations." The central bank stressed in the second quarter monetary policy report released on the same day.