Home >

See Two Big "Puzzles" &Nbsp; Investment Pays Attention To "Side".

2011/7/13 18:01:00 42

The stock index is less than 30 points on Monday.

Shock

The whole is quite calm.

This phenomenon indicates that the economic data released in advance of the weekend basically conformed to the general expectation of the beforehand market.

Although CPI in June has no doubt created a new high in the past 3 years, but considering that this rate hike is expected, the landing effect of its boots is more obvious, so the market tends to interpret this interest rate in an optimistic way.

Investors should cross the fog of "inflation" and "policy" and follow the intrinsic value of stocks to find the most valuable investment targets from the side.

Not to be confused by inflation.

Now that we are at a crossroads, we must first distinguish.

direction

。

Our market has always had a "liquidity" complex. We believe that the market is dominated by liquidity. Therefore, we can not get rid of capital hunger and thirst. The reason is that most of the weight companies lack growth, and the market needs to have a large scale market.

The level of inflation directly affects the direction of the central bank's choice of monetary policy, so every time inflation is like a flood, becoming the focus of the market.

There are two main factors that analyze the rise of CPI. One is the tail up factor, which accounts for about 3.7% of the total, and the proportion in the 6.4% rise is about 58%. The two is the food price in the new price increase factor, and the food price rose 14.4% in June, which affected CPI's rise by about 4.26 percentage points, especially the 57.1% rise in pork price, and it became the main pushing force to push CPI directly to "six" in June.

Some organizations and experts are interested in future CPI.

trend

The judgement is very optimistic. With the gradual reduction of the influence of the tail factor on price, the CPI in June will reach a high level in adult, and inflation has become a strong end in the year. Therefore, it is suggested that monetary policy should gradually move from austerity to normality, so as to avoid a hard landing of the economy.

Some experts and agencies used the stock market dialectics. Last year, some institutions and experts had made the same judgement on price movements. After the elimination of the tail factor, the price of 2010 will appear before and after the trend of high and low. However, facts have proved that the factors that affect the price increase are far from the tail factor. In the second half of last year, the performance of CPI was far ahead of the first half.

Investment is the result, no matter what.

inflation

Is it continuing or falling down?

If it continues, it means tightening policy will be more severe, which is undoubtedly a heavy blow to those blue chips that need liquidity to support the stock price. If it is to fall back, the market will face an investment opportunity dominated by intrinsic value, or if it is to fall sharply to deflation, then the liquidity release will cause the market to go up.

Our investment should not be caught up in inflation. Instead, we should jump out of inflation and look for opportunities for rising share prices.

Not be confused by "policy"

Another policy leading the market is policy.

At present, investors are accustomed to determining investment strategies according to policies. However, excessive reliance on policies often leads to policy misinterpretation.

How to interpret investment opportunities brought about by policies is still a basic course for investors to learn continuously.

Yesterday, there seemed to be some signs of the start of the water sector plate: 4 trillion of the investment space is really tempting, so that investors feel that there is a huge cake waiting to be cut off, and becoming the first choice.

But we think that this "lazy Investment Law" is more to help investors learn to lose money rather than make money. Many people do not really understand the role of policy in individual stocks, and the promotion of policy to individual stocks will never be achieved in a few days.

Investment really needs to pay attention to the trend of policy, but this is just a process of icing on the cake.

But many investors rely too much on policy as an important indicator in order to find investment opportunities, ignoring the reaction of stocks to policies.

This is precisely the key to the problem. What we should see more is what specific gains the stocks have gained.

Investment opportunities still need to be found around.

To get rid of the "two big" confusion, the key is to choose the basis of company performance.

From the perspective of investment opportunities, we believe that the theme of consumption will be an important investment target. There are two main directions, one is food and beverage, and the other is fresh.

Two is brand clothing, always fashionable industry.

These industries tend to have a relatively smooth industrial cycle. They depend on actual consumption demand and reflect real economic changes rather than monetary disturbances.

From the point of view of investment inertia, for the A share market which can not be separated from the "liquidity" complex at present, the so-called defensive nature makes these theme stocks highly operational value.