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Cotton Shortage Rose &Nbsp In Recent Months; The Probability Of A Flash In The Pan Increased.

2011/6/1 16:16:00 62

Zheng cotton far and near contract has been different in recent days, and the contract of the far month has broken through, and the contract in recent months has not yet got rid of the consolidation of the more than 10 trading days.

Recently, CF1201 has increased its volume to 30 positions and nearly 240 thousand hands, with nearly 800 thousand hands in volume.

At the same time, the CF1109 contract appeared to shrink rapidly. The 30 day position was reduced to about 360 thousand hands, and the turnover was less than the CF1201 contract, with only 410 thousand hands.

The author thinks that the phenomenon of rapid shift is directly related to the different fundamentals of cotton in the near future.

CF1109 corresponds to the old cotton, the domestic cotton spinning industry is entangled in the current and the short term is difficult to have the fresh theme to cause the big market, so that investors' interest in CF1109 contract is weakened, this is also evident from its disk trend.

The CF1201 contract and the ICE cotton contract in December correspond to the new cotton in the 2011/12 year. The current drought in the US cotton area is an important hype theme, triggering investor interest and accelerating the shift process.

Dual Restriction of demand and capital

At present, small and medium-sized cotton spinning enterprises are in a dilemma.

RMB rate

The factors such as rising height, tight capital chain, increased raw material cost, and higher labor cost have weakened the competitiveness of textile enterprises, especially export oriented textile enterprises. The price is high, customers are not allowed, they are afraid of customer churn, they lose money and lose money. Enterprises are in a dilemma and have a great impact on export orders.

Before the order problem is settled in small and medium-sized textile enterprises, the price of lint cotton will be suppressed by "weak demand".

For the price of lint, the "replenishment demand" of the spinning mill is the most fundamental and core factor that will emerge next.

And because of the pressure from orders and funds pressure, this profit is hard to come up in the near future.

Capital chain tension adverse spot warmer

Capital chain tension is another core problem that plagued small and medium textile enterprises.

One of the reasons for the tension of capital chain is production.

Sales of finished products

Two of the reasons for the backlog of inventory are financing difficulties and cost increase.

At present, the interest pressure of enterprise loans is greater, and enterprises are more prudent in long-term loans.

In addition, because banks have reduced the scale of lending, small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises with insufficient collateral have become increasingly difficult to borrow from banks, and some enterprises have difficulty in capital turnover.

By the end of May, the agricultural development bank had stepped up lending efforts, making cotton enterprises unprepared.

It is reported that the order issued by the Xinjiang Agricultural Development Bank recently is 85% of the loans returned at the end of May, which is 15 percentage points higher than the previous 70%.

The pressure to repay loans has undoubtedly exacerbated the weak atmosphere of the market. In order to repay loans, some cotton storage enterprises have to sell cotton for loans.

Current US and China

Cotton futures

The same characteristic of the market is: far strong, near weak.

The common reason for the near weakness lies in the fact that the demand is not strong, and the reason for that is because of the hype about the dry weather.

The impact of dry weather on cotton in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River needs attention only, and the impact of drought on cotton yield in the United States should be highly regarded.

To sum up, under the influence of low demand and increasing pressure on repayment of loans, domestic cotton prices are still likely to be running weak in the near future.

In terms of futures, CF1109 contract does not have the value of "copy bottom".

Even with the rise of the far month contract, the probability of a flash in the pan is greater.

Far month contract is affected by the systemic drought speculation atmosphere, the shock is strong.