Kang Zhi Pharmaceutical "Ni Mei Shug Leigh Incident" Is Better Than The Notice Of Danger.

The "Ni Mei Shug Leigh incident" of Kang Zhi pharmaceutical [17.50 4.29% stock bar is definitely not a temporary event. Its impact on the company may last for a long time. It is even much more difficult than rebuilding a company.

I see some evaluation agencies or Investment When people re evaluate Ni Mei Shug Leigh's situation, they usually calculate the current sales and current period. Finance This is greatly underestimated. If you have an objective psychological preparation, if you do not consider the value of its transaction, if you can see its wider interest, its net profit on this year's profit statement should be a negative number.

How did this conclusion come from? Although it has four major product structures, namely, zhizhiqing (Nimesulide Granules), Cefminox Sodium for Injection, Zhike tangerine granules, and cold heat clearing granules, its operating income from 2007 to 2010 is 959 million 400 thousand, 135 million 840 thousand, 218 million 770 thousand and 314 million 450 thousand respectively, and the proportion of rezhiqing is 64.24%, 73.01%, 80.77% and 70.6% respectively. Rui Zhi Qing is the only value of Kang Zhi.

At the same time, we should observe that Ni Mei Shug Leigh is right. profit The impact of the rate is greater than the proportion of business acceptance. From 2008 to 2010, its gross profit rate was 73.82%, 79.58%, 80.09%, and other child drug gross margins were 33.86%, 36.94% and 37.5%, respectively. The gross profit margin of adult drugs was 43.03%, 43.29%, 33.9%. This group expresses three problems: first, the impact of profit is greater than that of business income; the two is that even if other products grow, Kang Zhi will not be able to return to high profit margins; three, the company may not have a leading product in a few years.

Through extensive research, I do not agree that Kang's performance in the first half of the year is down by 40%-60% compared with the same period last year. It is not a simple inference that the sales volume of Ruzhi Qing dropped by 42% in the first quarter of this year. This is the logic of a fish dragon confusion. As we all know, the notifications of the State Food and drug administration are "disabled under the age of 12", which is a one size fits all notice. You can't be lucky.

In addition, my conclusion also comes from two more serious cases: 31 million 60 thousand (2010 annual data, current data should be on it) how to deal with inventory. According to its product structure, at least 80% above are related to Rui Ching Ching. Moreover, the inventory is only raw materials and semi-finished products, such as finished products and products that are in circulation in the market, at least 2 times more than this data. In this case, please check with the company in time and pay close attention to its semi annual report.

Far more serious is its 245 million 250 thousand fundraising project, child drug production base. After the original plan was completed at the end of 2011, the annual output of Rui Zhi Qing increased from the current 582 million bags to 1 billion 800 million bags, and 270 million sales will be formed next year, resulting in 810 million market sales. Obviously, all of this is gone.

It is not just expected that no longer exists. In fact, 245 million 250 thousand of the investment of the project has invested 107 million 900 thousand. Even if the investment is not carried out in full, there will be significant gains and losses, and it will be shelved.

At the same time, we must remind that although its sponsor broker Haitong Securities [9.02 0.56% shares "analysts" issued a "hemostasis report", but I think it has passed away. Continue to pay attention next time.