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The Next Uplink Target For The US Cotton December Contract Is Probably 82.5.

2010/8/9 11:18:00 31

The 10 year December contract cleared the recent resistance level near 77.50 cents and continued to rise this week.

The market has been consolidating in recent days, several days approaching the June high point, and then continued to rise.

Yesterday broke through the top of the trading range, but the mid-term curve did not change much because the market closing price was only a few points higher than the key resistance level of the 80 cents chart.

In December 10, March, the contract price difference between -11 and 1.60-2.50 was still between two cents.

Outlook: nearly two weeks speculators and

fund

When investors enter all commodity markets, cotton is bullish and driven by popularity.

There are no other new factors that can reasonably explain the strong performance of the cotton market.

Continuous commodity index graphic display, recent overall

commodity market

North Korea has always been on the rise. Wheat seems to be the only commodity that has gained strength in the near future because of its good fundamentals.

If the recent breakthrough is confirmed by the market, then the next upward goal of the 10 year contract in December will be near 82.50 cents, and the market will enter a bullish mode. This mode deserves attention; however, because of the increasing volatility, it will not be surprising if the market price presents a trend of adjustment.

Turkey - according to the latest import / export data, 777614 tons of cotton have been imported from 09 in August 1st -2010 in May.

There are still two months left. We can therefore expect that the total import volume will be about 920000 tons, the largest import quantity in Turkey's history.

This year's output is only 390000 tons.

Consumption

It can reach about 1350000 tons, and the operating conditions are very good. Spinning mills are very profitable.

Demand for yarn, fabric and finished products has improved since the beginning of the year, especially in Europe.

In this optimistic environment, confidence is picking up, and spinning equipment is starting to attract new investment.

It is expected to increase about 120000 tons of cotton spinning equipment, mainly the ring spinning equipment.

Because of the European holiday, demand for textile products in Turkey has been decreasing these days, but it should rebound soon.

Yarn prices have dropped slightly in recent weeks.

As the final inventory is very low, we anticipate that cotton demand will continue to be strong.

The output of Turkey's new cotton is expected to be 550,00 tons, due to the enlargement of the planting area and good weather conditions.

Cotton will start picking in September, and the demand for new cotton will be good.

China - Zhengzhou commodity exchange this week rose 300 points (1.8%) in January 11, maintaining its short-term optimism.

The medium and long lines will remain neutral, provided that the price does not exceed 17000 yuan / ton.

CNCE also showed the same increase. The new flower foundation remained unchanged.

Cotton demand at home and abroad showed weakness.

Perhaps the textile factory hopes to wait for next week's national cotton store to sell through CNCE, and then decide whether to continue purchasing cotton.

Yarn prices continued to decline, but the rate of decline slowed down.

The growth of new cotton is normal, but in different growing areas, the growth rate varies rapidly.